Peeling Back Assumptions Behind the Futures We Imagine

 

When we talk about the future, we often argue at the surface. We debate statistics, events, or policies. But beneath those surface arguments lie deeper assumptions, worldviews, and even myths that quietly shape what we think is possible. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is a tool that helps us dig into those layers. Think of it as peeling an onion—or peeling back the stories beneath the stories—so we can imagine futures with more depth and honesty.

Four layers, one future

CLA works by breaking down an issue into four layers. Each layer is valid, but each reveals something different.

1. The Litany – The headlines and surface chatter
   This is what we see in newspapers, social media feeds, and casual conversations. It’s the numbers, the complaints, the buzzwords. For example, when talking about education, the litany might be: “Test scores are falling. Kids are distracted by phones. Teachers are overworked.”
2. The Systemic Causes – The structures and drivers
   Go a little deeper and you find the underlying systems. Funding models, exam policies, technology access, teacher training—these are the root causes shaping the litany. In our education example: “Inequality in school resources. Pressure from standardized tests. Rapid tech adoption without guidance.”
3. The Worldview – The cultural lens
   Beneath systems lie beliefs about how the world works. What do we value? What do we take for granted? In education: “The purpose of school is to produce workers for the economy.” Or alternatively: “Education should nurture whole human beings, not just test-takers.” These worldviews explain why systems look the way they do.
4. The Myth/Metaphor – The deep stories
   At the core are the stories we rarely question. These are myths, archetypes, and metaphors. For education, a myth might be: “Life is a race, and only winners succeed.” Or: “Teachers are gardeners, and children are seeds that need care.” These stories silently shape everything else.

Why this matters

When we only argue at the litany level—complaints, headlines, surface events—change is shallow. We end up treating symptoms, not causes. CLA reminds us that real transformation often requires shifting worldviews and stories. If the myth we live by is “life is a competition,” then no policy tweak will stop students from being pressured into anxiety. But if we change the underlying story—say, to “learning is a journey”—then the systems we build might look completely different.

Using CLA in plain practice

You don’t need to be an academic to use CLA. Try it like this:

1. Pick an issue you care about.
2. Write down what you see at the surface (the litany).
3. Ask: What structures or systems create this pattern?
4. Then ask: What beliefs or values keep those structures in place?
5. Finally, ask: What story or metaphor is running underneath it all?

Example:

• Litany: “Traffic is getting worse every year.”
• Systemic causes: Urban sprawl, poor public transport, car dependency.
• Worldview: “Freedom means owning a car.”
• Myth/metaphor: “The open road is the path to independence.”

Now you have a fuller picture of why the problem exists—and you can imagine futures that shift not just policies but also the stories we live by.

The power of peeling back layers

Causal Layered Analysis gives us a simple but profound lesson: the future is built not only on data and plans but also on the deep stories we tell about ourselves. By peeling back assumptions, we can design futures that aren’t just extensions of today’s problems but expressions of better myths—stories of care, resilience, creativity, and justice.