How Singapore Is Leading the Way in Foresight Literacy

 

If there is one country that shows what it means to weave futures literacy into everyday governance, it is Singapore. Over three decades, the city-state has built a full ecosystem that constantly scans for weak signals, stress-tests policies against multiple scenarios, and trains its public officers to think long term. At the heart of this work is the Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF), located within the Prime Minister’s Office Strategy Group, whose mission is to prepare the public service for a rapidly changing world.

Singapore’s journey began in the early 1990s, when it adopted Shell-style scenario planning. By 1993 the government had formally embraced it for long-term policy work, even sending civil servants to train with Shell’s Group Planning team and join the Global Business Network to learn the craft. What began as experiments in one corner of government grew into a system that now spans across ministries. In 2009, CSF was established, and since 2015 it has sat within the PMO’s Strategy Group, coordinating a whole-of-government foresight effort. Today, many agencies run their own domain-specific foresight teams, with CSF acting as a hub that connects, trains, and spreads good practice.

The methods have also evolved. Classic scenario planning remains important, but Singapore added a wider toolkit, branded Scenario Planning Plus (SP+), which incorporates weak-signal detection and “black swan” analysis to cope with discontinuous change. These approaches are designed not just to create reports but to inform real strategy. Alongside this, capability building is deeply institutionalised. Futures training is part of milestone programmes at the Civil Service College, while CSF itself runs practical “FutureCraft” courses. Every two years CSF publishes Foresight, a report that synthesises megatrends and methodologies for the broader community.

Leadership commitment has ensured foresight is not peripheral. A Strategic Futures Network brings senior officials from across ministries together to compare notes, test assumptions, and align on priorities. CSF also deliberately engages beyond government, meeting hundreds of thought leaders every year and running curated dialogues so that fresh perspectives flow into policymaking. The commitment to sense-making also extends into national security. After lessons from SARS in 2003, Singapore developed the Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) system under the National Security Coordination Secretariat in the PMO. RAHS, formally established in 2007, combines processes, technology, and analyst expertise to anticipate complex risks. Together with CSF’s socio-economic foresight, it ensures Singapore covers both security threats and long-range transformations.

Outputs from this ecosystem are not kept behind closed doors. Tools such as scenario sets, driving-forces cards, and reflective method pieces are shared publicly, reinforcing learning across agencies and with partners. Observers such as the OECD highlight Singapore as a benchmark for “anticipatory innovation governance,” noting that it has embedded foresight into structures, routines, and decision-making in ways few countries manage. There are also debates, especially around RAHS and the use of data, where concerns about privacy and trade-offs are openly discussed. This, too, is part of a mature foresight culture—balancing preparedness with public trust.

What makes Singapore stand out is not a single tool or office but the fact that foresight has become a habit of governance. Leaders demand long-term views, officers are trained to generate them, methods are continually refined, and institutions are in place to act on insights. In Singapore, foresight literacy is not a buzzword. It is the quiet discipline of preparing a small nation for a turbulent world, and it has become one of its distinctive strengths.